Elements of the Dynamical Response to Climate Change over the Mediterranean

Abstract Future climate simulations indicate that the Mediterranean Basin will experience large low-level circulation changes during winter, characterized by a strong anomalous ridge drives regional precipitation decline. Previous research highlighted how shifts in stationary wave structure and atmospheric response to reduced warming of Sea relative land could explain development this pressure high. Here, we expand on these results provide new arguments for why is projected winter. First, find zonal asymmetries vertical waves are important enhanced region related through external mode mean wind. Second, located just north Hadley cell edge consequently relatively free large-scale descent; together with low near-surface static stability above sea, condition allows weaker trend sea propagate troposphere trigger major response. During summer, however, remotely forced descent prevent cooling anomaly from expanding upward. Most intermodel scatter winter spread upper-tropospheric dynamical trends. Importantly, because models exhibit too much coherence over Mediterranean, they likely overestimate sensitivity changes.